BMI expects to see steady growth in Thailand’s already well-established tourism market, with the political environment expected to remain relatively stable in the wake of the military coup in May 2014, in the short term at least. Inbound and outbound travel are forecast to increase over the years to 2018, and a range of international developers continue to invest in this popular Asia Pacific destination.

Following the coup, Thailand will remain under military rule until general elections, which are currently scheduled for October 2015. Although the junta has restored stability to the country, there remains a great deal of uncertainty in terms of longer-term political risk that could impact upon its growth potential. In the short-term, however, things are looking up for tourism; restrictive curfews have been lifted in 25 provinces, including most tourist areas, which will help to restore a more positive outlook, particularly in parts of Bangkok, where hotels and restaurants saw a slump in visitors.

Thailand has long been a popular tourism destination in the Asia Pacific region, building on a range of ecological and cultural attractions to attract visitors from a variety of countries, giving its inbound market a healthy diversity and lessening the potential impact of any economic downturn in particular regions. Thanks to growth of around 4% during the forecast period, we expect the total inbound arrivals figure will reach nearly 28mn in 2018, making Thailand one of the most competitive destinations in the region.

Inbound travel will continue to outweigh outbound travel for the foreseeable future; however, thanks to healthy GDP growth and increased consumer spending power, we do expect to see more tourist departures from Thailand over the next few years. From 7.9mn in 2014, we expect outbound travel to grow to 10.4mn in 2018. This growth is dependent on domestic economic prosperity, and developers will be keeping a close eye on developments under the ruling military…

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